Ocugen (NASDAQ:OCGN) stock is up from a near-term trough of $5.24 on April 20, and $6.13 on June 14 to $7.59 as of Aug. 31. But this gain is not as much as I predicted in my previous article on OCGN stock, where I suggested it was worth $8.08.
This implies that it still has 6.5% more to rise if it were to hit that price target. And I still believe that Ocugen could hit that and more, especially if its Covid-19 vaccine candidate, Covaxin, receives approval from some countries.
I now think that the stock could be worth $9.05 per share, or 19% over Tuesday’s closing price of $7.59. This article will explain why.
Where Things Stand For Ocugen
On Aug. 6, the company updated investors with its progress. However, since Ocugen still does not make revenue, its release was more an update on its Covid-19 vaccine progress.
The company’s partner, Bharat Biotech of India reported 77.8% efficacy against Covid-19 disease in its Phase 3 trials, and against severe Covid-19 it was 93.4% effective. However, 12.4% of its subjects had some form of adverse event with the trial, including under 0.5% with serious side effects.
However, in June the company amended its agreement with Bharat Biotech to allow it to market the vaccine in Canada (in addition to the U.S., subject to FDA approval). So far, all the company has said is that the “review process has begun in Canada.”
As for the FDA, the company said it is still in discussions with the agency about getting a Biologics License Application (BLA), as opposed to an NDA (New Drug Application). A major difference between the two relates to how the vaccine is developed. BLA items come from living biological items as opposed to chemically developed drugs.
The bottom line is that it still seems to be taking some time before either Canada or the U.S. approves the Covaxin vaccine. So far, the company has not given any indication of when it expects to start making revenue.
However, Ocugen is still burning through cash. In addition to paying $15 million upfront to Bharat Biotech for the right to sell Covaxin in Canada, Ocugen had $3.9 million in expenses. Luckily the company has $115.8 million in cash, so it has plenty of liquidity to ride out a number of years with no revenue.
What Ocugen Is Worth
Right now OCGN stock has a market value of $1.509 billion, according to Yahoo! Finance, which typically has the most accurate market capitalization calculation. This includes a lot of good news imputed in it.
For example, analysts surveyed by Seeking Alpha estimate it will make $135.5 million in revenue next year. Analysts surveyed by Refinitiv, as seen in Yahoo! Finance’s Analysis page on OCGN stock, show the same estimate.
This implies that OCGN stock trades at a price-to-sale (P/S) multiple of 11.1 times. To make sense of that number, let’s assume that 20 million people in the U.S. and Canada end up taking the Covaxin vaccine at a cost of $25 per dose. That works out to $500 million in revenue, and $1 billion for a two-dose regimen per year.
So with a 20% overhead and a 45% split to Bharat Biotech, the net result for Ocugen will be $360 million per year. Assuming this works for five years, the total value is worth $1.8 billion. That is $291 million over today’s $1.509 billion market value or 19.3% more.
That puts the value of OCGN stock at $9.05 per share or 19.3% over Tuesday’s $7.59 closing price.
What To Do With OCGN Stock
The four analysts who have written on OCGN stock and are covered by TipRanks.com have an average price target of $8.88 per share. This is close to my price target of $9.05 per share.
In my last article, I put together a probability matrix for various probable outcomes with OCGN stock. Now I do not think that is necessary, since my price target is almost 20% over today’s price. Assuming that Ocugen obtains approval of its vaccine for distribution outside of India, investors might like to begin acquiring a stake.
On the date of publication, Mark R. Hake did not hold a position in any security mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.
Mark Hake writes about personal finance on mrhake.medium.com and runs the Total Yield Value Guide which you can review here.