Today’s Mortgage Rates & Trends – October 28, 2021: Rates continue retreat

Investing News

Mortgage rates have eased lower for a third consecutive day, notably reversing direction after last week’s strong upward momentum took the flagship 30-year rate to within a point of its highest average of the calendar year. So far this week, the 30-year rate is down a full tenth of a percentage point.

National Averages of Lenders’ Best Rates
Loan Type Purchase Refinance
30-Year Fixed 3.33% 3.44%
FHA 30-Year Fixed 3.20% 3.40%
Jumbo 30-Year Fixed 3.46% 3.64%
15-Year Fixed 2.56% 2.66%
5/1 ARM 3.05% 3.46%
National averages of the lowest rates offered by more than 200 of the country’s top lenders, with a loan-to-value ratio (LTV) of 80%, an applicant with a FICO credit score of 700-760, and no mortgage points.

Today’s National Mortgage Rate Averages

After last week ended with a two-day rate surge, raising averages for some loan types to almost their highest levels of the calendar year, national mortgage rates have since fallen away, with a drop every day this week.

The 30-year fixed-rate average dipped another four basis points Wednesday, lowering it to 3.23%. That’s now a tenth of a percentage point below Friday’s reading of 3.33%. Compared to early August, however, when a major rate drop brought the 30-year rate down to 2.89%, today’s rate is about a third of a percentage point higher.

Rates on 15-year and Jumbo 30-year loans also declined Wednesday, but by a more modest two basis points. The 15-year average is down to 2.50% and the Jumbo 30-year average, 3.40%. These rates are now 0.29 and 0.34 percentage points, respectively, above their early-August lows.

Refinance rates also eased further Wednesday, with the 30-year refinance average losing five points. Rates to refinance 30-year and 15-year loans are currently 10 to 16 basis points more costly than new purchase rates.

Important:

The rates you see here generally won’t compare directly with teaser rates you see advertised online, since those rates are cherry-picked as the most attractive. They may involve paying points in advance, or may be selected based on a hypothetical borrower with an ultra-high credit score or taking a smaller-than-typical loan given the value of the home.

National Averages of Lenders’ Best Rates – New Purchase
Loan Type New Purchase Daily Change
30-Year Fixed 3.23% -0.04
FHA 30-Year Fixed 3.09% -0.06
VA 30-Year Fixed 3.13% -0.06
Jumbo 30-Year Fixed 3.40% -0.02
20-Year Fixed 3.00% -0.06
15-Year Fixed 2.50% -0.02
Jumbo 15-Year Fixed 3.13% -0.02
10-Year Fixed 2.42% -0.03
10/1 ARM 3.20% +0.06
10/6 ARM 4.34% No Change
7/1 ARM 2.59% -0.14
Jumbo 7/1 ARM 2.31% -0.03
7/6 ARM 3.68% +0.07
Jumbo 7/6 ARM 2.71% -0.01
5/1 ARM 2.52% No Change
Jumbo 5/1 ARM 2.17% -0.02
5/6 ARM 4.27% -0.14
Jumbo 5/6 ARM 2.73% No Change
National Averages of Lenders’ Best Rates – Refinancing
Loan Type Refinance Daily Change
30-Year Fixed 3.33% -0.05
FHA 30-Year Fixed 3.29% -0.09
VA 30-Year Fixed 3.39% -0.09
Jumbo 30-Year Fixed 3.56% -0.03
20-Year Fixed 3.13% -0.07
15-Year Fixed 2.60% -0.02
Jumbo 15-Year Fixed 3.40% +0.01
10-Year Fixed 2.54% -0.03
10/1 ARM 3.80% +0.01
10/6 ARM 4.44% -0.09
7/1 ARM 3.13% -0.57
Jumbo 7/1 ARM 2.59% -0.03
7/6 ARM 4.12% +0.09
Jumbo 7/6 ARM 2.98% No Change
5/1 ARM 3.22% -0.06
Jumbo 5/1 ARM 2.43% -0.04
5/6 ARM 4.29% -0.01
Jumbo 5/6 ARM 2.91% No Change

Lowest Mortgage Rates by State

The lowest mortgage rates available vary depending on the state where originations occur. Mortgage rates can be influenced by state-level variations in credit score, average mortgage loan term, and size, as well as individual lenders’ varying risk management strategies.


These rates are surveyed directly from over 200 top lenders.

What Causes Mortgage Rates to Rise or Fall?

Mortgage rates are determined by a complex interaction of macroeconomic and industry factors, such as the level and direction of the bond market, including 10-year Treasury yields; the Federal Reserve’s current monetary policy, especially as it relates to funding government-backed mortgages; and competition between lenders and across loan types. Because fluctuations can be caused by any number of these at once, it’s generally difficult to attribute the change to any one factor.

Macroeconomic factors have kept the mortgage market relatively low for the last several months. In particular, the Federal Reserve has been buying billions of dollars of bonds and continues to do so. This bond-buying policy (and not the more publicized federal funds rate) is a major influencer on mortgage rates.

But Fed policy could soon change. The Fed’s rate and policy committee, called the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), meets every 6-8 weeks, and concluded their latest meeting September 22. Though they did not yet announce a change to their bond-buying plans, a majority of Fed members indicated they favor beginning to taper the stimulus by the end of 2021.

The next scheduled FOMC event will be their November 2-3 rate-setting meeting.

Methodology

The national averages cited above were calculated based on the lowest rate offered by more than 200 of the country’s top lenders, assuming a loan-to-value ratio (LTV) of 80% and an applicant with a FICO credit score in the 700-760 range. The resulting rates are representative of what customers should expect to see when receiving actual quotes from lenders based on their qualifications, which may vary from advertised teaser rates.

For our map of the best state rates, the lowest rate currently offered by a surveyed lender in that state is listed, assuming the same parameters of an 80% LTV and a credit score between 700-760.

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