One year ago, Plug Power (NASDAQ:PLUG) was a little known supplier of hydrogen fuel cells for forklifts that — much like the broader hydrogen market itself — had a history of false starts and empty promises. PLUG stock was trading hands around $3.
A year later, that little known hydrogen fuel cell has gone parabolic. Plug Power is now the poster boy for a burgeoning Hydrogen Economy that promises to disrupt the multi-trillion-dollar energy production and storage markets.
PLUG stock has soared 10X to $30.
I was bullish on PLUG stock back when it was a penny stock. I’m still bullish on PLUG stock today now that its one of the hottest stocks on Wall Street.
Why am I still so bullish? Three big reasons — and those three big reasons are as follows.
The Hydrogen Economy Reaches Its Tipping Point
The “Hydrogen Economy” is beginning to reach an enormous tipping point … for the first time in hydrogen’s long and choppy history — which finds its roots back in the early 2000s, when then U.S. President George W. Bush was hyping up hydrogen cars as the future — all the stars have aligned for the clean energy source to put aside two decades of false starts and empty promises, and finally come into its own.
The global political stage is paving the way for mass decarbonization over the next ten years, as the countries of the world work to hit a net-zero emissions target by 2030. Then, we’re looking a significant price reduction in hydrogen fuel cells, which have dropped by 60% in the past ten years. And the cost-cutting will continue, as Deloitte expects hydrogen fuel cell costs to come in below both electric battery and combustion engine costs in only a few years.
Even more, technological advancements and falling renewable energy costs have led to a new era of scalable “Green Hydrogen” production. That is, where hydrogen is produced in a cost-effective manner from renewable energy sources — such as solar and wind — as opposed to being sourced from natural gas.
As all of these drivers coalesce, the barriers that were keeping hydrogen boxed in will finally fall.
With those barriers removed, the Hydrogen Economy will tip into its long overdue renaissance. And Morgan Stanley’s $11 trillion hydrogen market prediction will come to pass in the coming decades.
At the epicenter of this hydrogen explosion is Plug Power, which of course means PLUG stock has a bright future.
Plug Power Gaining Business Momentum
Plug Power has rapidly emerged as the unrivaled leader of the burgeoning Hydrogen Economy.
The company started out by selling hydrogen fuel cells to companies like Walmart (NYSE:WMT) and Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) for use in their forklifts. Those fuel cells were broadly seen as a cost- and performance-efficient way for major warehouse operators to cut carbon emissions and improve productivity (since Plug Power’s fuel cells boast 99% uptime with constant power performance).
It was a solid business. But with limited demand. Mostly because big companies were perfectly happy using their old yet cheap forklifts.
Until recently.
Until geopolitical pressure on these companies to cut carbon emissions has dramatically increased, at the same time that the performance needs of fulfillment centers has dramatically increased, too, because of significantly elevated e-commerce demand (with everyone shopping online now, companies like Walmart and Amazon need their forklifts to have 99% uptime with constant power performance to avoid backlogs and delays).
Thus, in recent quarters, demand for Plug Power’s forklift-focused hydrogen fuel cells has increased significantly. Revenue growth rates have surged into the 100%-plus range, and the company has expanded existing partnerships with companies like Walmart to be more deeply integrated in its e-commerce network.
To that end, Plug Power has firmly cemented itself as the leader in providing hydrogen fuel cells into the massive materials handling market.
More than that, though, Plug Power is launching new hydrogen fuel cells for use in the automotive and stationary end-markets, and has acquired multiple companies to expand into green hydrogen production.
Net net, Plug Power is leveraging its leadership position in the most mature vertical of the Hydrogen Economy to establish early leadership across all verticals of the Hydrogen Economy.
Naturally, that puts PLUG stock is a position of strength as the Hydrogen Economy kicks into hypergrowth mode.
Plug Power Stock Remains Fairly Valued
The one knock against Plug Power stock at current levels is valuation.
After all, the stock has risen 10X in just twelve months. That’s an enormous gain. Most stocks never rise 10X, and ones that do, usually take decades to do so. Plug Power stock did it in a year.
It’s reasonable to look at such an epic rally and say its overdone.
But with respect to PLUG stock, it’s not.
Plug Power is still just a $13 billion company on the cusp of fundamentally disrupting a multi-trillion-dollar energy production industry. That doesn’t scream “overvalued stock”. If anything, it screams that this stock has a lot of runway left.
Indeed, it does.
The Hydrogen Economy is broadly expected to grow revenues by ~10% per year over the next decade. Plug Power, as the leader in this market with a rapidly expanding presence, should easily double that, and grow revenues by ~20% per year over the next decade. EBITDA margins should scale towards 30% with time, as economies of scale drive costs down.
Plugging those assumptions into a model, my numbers say that Plug Power is on track to do more than $3 in earnings per share by 2030.
Based on a 20X forward earnings multiple, that implies a long-term price target for PLUG stock of $60. Using an 8% annual discount rate, that equates to a 2020 price target of $30.
Bottom Line on PLUG Stock
Plug Power stock is a long-term winner. The only reason to sell a long-term winner is if it gets so hot, that the valuation starts to detach from the fundamentals.
That isn’t the case with PLUG stock today. The valuation remains tangible to reality, and is supported by the company’s long-term earnings growth potential.
So, stick with PLUG stock until that’s no longer the case.
On the date of publication, Luke Lango did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article.
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