Trader Talk

In my 23 years as on-air stocks correspondent for CNBC, I’ve been asked many questions by strangers, but most of them boil down to some variant of “What do you think is going to happen to the markets?”   Remarkably, almost no one (OK, maybe one in a hundred) ever ask what I would consider

An exterior view of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) headquarters in Washington. Jonathan Ernst | Reuters What would a Democrat-controlled Securities and Exchange Commission look like? It’s early, but speculation is already raging on Wall Street.  Who will be the next SEC Commissioner?  Former CFTC chair Gary Gensler, who aggressively implemented Dodd Frank

Is it time for a reconsideration of this monster rally?  With the S&P 500 up 9% in six trading sessions to an all-time intraday high (though not a closing high), many are looking at parts of the market as overbought. Others agree, but say it doesn’t matter in this strange mix of election and vaccine

What’s next for markets? With the election over, some old themes will be re-emerging, regardless of who will be president.  The rally is due to better earnings visibility On one issue, all traders agree: the market rally is largely due to the unlikelihood of higher corporate and individual taxes next year. “The Senate numbers from the

Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Jay Clayton is telling corporate America it needs to get much more vigilant on security. In an interview Monday on CNBC’s “Power Lunch,” stressed that significant cybersecurity threats remain, despite the ongoing coronavirus pandemic and election season. “Cyber risks have not gone away with the unfortunate, unforeseen risks we’ve faced with

How is Wall Street positioned for the election? Even Wall Street isn’t sure.  For most of October, “buy the stimulus trade” was the main idea on Wall Street. After all, polls showed odds were good for a Biden victory that would likely entail some kind of large-scale stimulus.  Investors were buying small-cap stocks, infrastructure plays, and

People walk by the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in lower Manhattan on October 02, 2020 in New York City. Spencer Platt | Getty Images Earnings hopes wilt as fresh Covid outbreak throws 2021 reopening in doubt. That’s the story of earnings season so far.  It’s the one word investors didn’t want to hear: lockdown. Never mind

Dividends and buybacks are bouncing back.  At the end of the first quarter, there was tremendous concern that the levels of dividends and buybacks would be cut dramatically.  There have been cutbacks, but there’s good news amid the bad. The good and bad news on dividends For lovers of dividends, the end of the first quarter

Does it matter for stocks who wins the White House? Is there anything unusual about the candidates this year that could impact the markets, regardless of who wins?  For answers, we turn to Ed Clissold, chief U.S. Strategist for Ned Davis Research, who has studied elections and the impact on markets going back to 1900.  This

Is a vaccine the real risk to the market?  Stocks are within 1% to 2% of their historic highs because of the belief that: 1) stimulus of some form is coming, 2) the election will not devolve into chaos, and 3) an effective vaccine will be available in early 2021. Five vaccines — from Moderna,

Would you talk differently if you knew a machine was listening to you and grading you based on what you were saying, or based on whether you were using positive or negative words, or even if the sound of your voice was optimistic or pessimistic? Apparently, Wall Street executives are talking differently. They are trying to

A pedestrian wearing a protective mask exits from the Wall Street subway station in New York, on Monday, July 20, 2020. Michael Nagle | Bloomberg | Getty Images Wall Street is getting bulled up on earnings, and that is highlighting the divide it has with Main Street. Earnings season is two days old, and already

A view of NASDAQ in Times Square during the coronavirus pandemic on May 7, 2020 in New York City. Noam Galai | Getty Images Entertainment | Getty Images In the ETF space, success begets success. Just look at what Invesco is doing today. They’re launching a new product, the NASDAQ Next Gen 100 ETF (QQQJ).

People walk by the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in lower Manhattan on October 5, 2020 in New York City. Angela Weiss | AFP | Getty Images Stock market bulls, rejoice.  Third quarter earnings season begins Tuesday with JPMorgan Chase.  The good news: in the second quarter, companies delivered surprisingly large earnings beats as analysts underestimated

Some are calling it “a la carte stimulus,” with aid for airlines in column A, PPP aid in Column B, etc.  Whatever it is,  hopes for stimulus — pre-election, post-election, comprehensive package, stand-alone deal, whatever and whenever — is supporting breakouts in cyclicals like industrials, materials, consumer discretionary, and banks. Many big names like Caterpillar,

U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) speak to reporters after their coronavirus relief negotiations with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, U.S. August 7, 2020. Jonathan Ernst | Reuters The trading community is actively debating the

A pedestrian outside the New York Stock Exchange in New York, July 29, 2020. Wang Ying | Xinhua News Agency | Getty Images The October market story is really complicated. If you thought September was confusing, October is not likely to be any better, and it could be significantly rockier. That’s because the “buckets” that

Earnings season kicks off in a couple weeks and here’s why it may be better than expected. The S&P 500 is down 4% for the month, the first down month since March, but investors are expecting big things from corporate earnings reports, which begin Oct. 13 when JPMorgan releases results. “September has been a rough

A computer-generated image from interiors contractor Portview shows how office space may be segregated as people go back to the workplace after the coronavirus lockdowns are eased. Portview What will the post-Covid workplace look like? Steelcase is one of the largest manufacturers of office furniture — desks, chairs, storage products and office pods — and

A trader working after the Nasdaq opening bell ceremony on April 18, 2019 in New York City. Kena Betancur | Getty Images Stock picking has a terrible track record, and it’s getting worse. That’s the thesis of Larry Swedroe and Andrew Berkin’s book, “The Incredible Shrinking Alpha,” just out in its second edition. Swedroe is