Trader Talk

Some are calling it “a la carte stimulus,” with aid for airlines in column A, PPP aid in Column B, etc.  Whatever it is,  hopes for stimulus — pre-election, post-election, comprehensive package, stand-alone deal, whatever and whenever — is supporting breakouts in cyclicals like industrials, materials, consumer discretionary, and banks. Many big names like Caterpillar,

U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) speak to reporters after their coronavirus relief negotiations with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, U.S. August 7, 2020. Jonathan Ernst | Reuters The trading community is actively debating the

A pedestrian outside the New York Stock Exchange in New York, July 29, 2020. Wang Ying | Xinhua News Agency | Getty Images The October market story is really complicated. If you thought September was confusing, October is not likely to be any better, and it could be significantly rockier. That’s because the “buckets” that

Earnings season kicks off in a couple weeks and here’s why it may be better than expected. The S&P 500 is down 4% for the month, the first down month since March, but investors are expecting big things from corporate earnings reports, which begin Oct. 13 when JPMorgan releases results. “September has been a rough

A computer-generated image from interiors contractor Portview shows how office space may be segregated as people go back to the workplace after the coronavirus lockdowns are eased. Portview What will the post-Covid workplace look like? Steelcase is one of the largest manufacturers of office furniture — desks, chairs, storage products and office pods — and

A trader working after the Nasdaq opening bell ceremony on April 18, 2019 in New York City. Kena Betancur | Getty Images Stock picking has a terrible track record, and it’s getting worse. That’s the thesis of Larry Swedroe and Andrew Berkin’s book, “The Incredible Shrinking Alpha,” just out in its second edition. Swedroe is

Snowflake IPO begins trading at the NYSE on Sept. 16th, 2020. Source: NYSE So you think Snowflake up over 100% on its first day is a big deal? Nah, there’s been plenty of companies that have had first day pops bigger than that this year.  They include biotech firm CureVac, up 249% on the first

The software business is on fire. This is going to be by far the biggest year for software IPOs in history. Four big software IPOs are pricing this week: Snowflake, Unity Software, Jfrog, and Sumo Logic. Palantir and Asana are coming at the end of September.   Snowflake priced its IPO at $120 per share, raising

Traders wearing masks work, on the first day of in person trading since the closure during the outbreak of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, U.S., May 26, 2020. Brendan McDermid | Reuters There’s a spate of new exchanges ready to launch that want

You knew this was coming. The market internals had been flashing warning signs for a couple weeks: very few new highs, very sloppy advance/decline line, low short interest, and a lot of talk about FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) and TINA (There Is No Alternative). All signs of frothiness. So what is this? Is this

A stock trader wearing a mask walks near social distancing signs the day a new IPO is launched at the New York Stock Exchange as the city continues Phase 4 of re-opening following restrictions imposed to slow the spread of coronavirus on August 27, 2020 in New York City. The fourth phase allows outdoor arts

A bear statue stands outside the Frankfurt Stock Exchange, operated by Deutsche Boerse AG, in Frankfurt, Germany, on Friday, March 13, 2020. Alex Kraus | Bloomberg | Getty Images Throw in the towel on a market pullback? It’s getting lonely being a market bear. Investors — even market bulls — who are trying to figure

It’s been a great August, up 6% for the S&P 500, the best August since 1986. But then again, it was a great July.  And a great June. May was pretty good, too, and April was downright eye-popping. The Summer Rally (S&P 500 Monthly Returns) April: up 12.7% May: up 4.5% June: up 1.8% July:

Protesters block a courthouse entrance in Los Angeles on Aug. 21, 2020. VALERIE MACON | AFP | Getty Images The rich really are getting richer.  We know this, but two Federal Reserve economists have recently examined the evidence and concluded the gap is getting even wider. Federal Reserve Board economists Isabel Cairo and Jae Sim

Traders wearing masks work, on the first day of in person trading since the closure during the outbreak of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, U.S., May 26, 2020. Brendan McDermid | Reuters It finally happened, but not without some drama. The S&P 500

A worker wearing a protective mask adjusts a torque wrench inside the service area at a Harley-Davidson dealership in Oakland, California, on Thursday, July 16, 2020. David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty Images The dark side of good earnings: Companies are talking about turning “furloughs” into permanent layoffs. You knew this was coming. It’s

Shake Shack, one of the many storefront businesses boarded in downtown Brooklyn over the fears of looting. Erik McGregor | Getty Images Just looking at the earnings for Apple, Amazon, Facebook and Google, you might get the impression that everything is going swimmingly for second- and third-quarter earnings. But that’s not the case. “We continue to

Amazon, Facebook, and Apple are only the most recent examples of a notable trend: earnings much better than expected. The reopening story may be getting rocky, but one pleasant surprise has been earnings. They are far noisier than normal, but in general they have been better than expected. Much better. And that is one of

Jason Gorevic, CEO, Teladoc Scott Mlyn | CNBC Earnings reports are coming in fast and furiously, and with a large percentage of companies declining to provide guidance, reporters and analysts are combing through corporate press releases and earnings calls for signs of how business is doing.  Semiconductors continue to be the all-round winner Equipment maker

The stock market is holding up well because it believes three things are happening: 1) a vaccine is coming, 2) there will be almost infinite stimulus from the Federal Reserve, and 3) the second quarter was the worst quarter for corporate profits and those profits will slowly improve. But there’s a subtext to much of